Individual Game Analysis
1 Game Profile
1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG
This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.
Published | ID | Name | Type | UserRatings | Average | GeekRating | Weight |
2022 | Current | 23 | 7.85 | 0 | 2.75 | ||
Estimated | 400 | 8.27 | 6 | 3.56 |
To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.
1.2 Game Description
Description |
Stars of Akarios is a narrative-driven cooperative tabletop game for 1-4 players set in the Draconian System. You and your friends are close to completing your pilot training when an unknown enemy attacks and destroys your home planet. You manage to escape and find yourself guarding the last remaining refugee ship. Throughout Stars of Akarios you fight in epic space battles, upgrade your ship and explore the fringes of space. But questions still remain: who attacked you, what do they want and will you be able to help rebuild the Medellian civilization? |
1.3 Game Information
Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.
Published | ID | Name | Publisher(s) | Designer(s) | Artist(s) | Categories | Families | Mechanics |
2022 | OOMM | Brendan McCaskell | Adventure | Components: Game Trayz Inside | Cooperative Game | |||
Jonathan Thwaites | Exploration | Crowdfunding: Kickstarter | Dice Rolling | |||||
Miniatures | Mechanism: Campaign Games | Grid Movement | ||||||
Science Fiction | Hexagon Grid | |||||||
Space Exploration | Map Addition | |||||||
Modular Board | ||||||||
Push Your Luck | ||||||||
Role Playing | ||||||||
Roles with Asymmetric Information | ||||||||
Scenario / Mission / Campaign Game | ||||||||
Solo / Solitaire Game | ||||||||
Storytelling | ||||||||
Team-Based Game | ||||||||
Variable Player Powers | ||||||||
For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/273910
1.4 Explaining Predictions
For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.
2 Finding Similar Games
What games are similar to Stars of Akarios? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Stars of Akarios. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.
This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).
Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.
2.1 Most Similar Games
The table below displays games with the most similar data to Stars of Akarios. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 7.85 | 3.56 | 23 | ||
1 | 2020 | 0.86 | 5.70 | 8.02 | 4.15 | 193 | ||
2 | 2019 | 0.84 | 6.96 | 8.79 | 4.03 | 1,894 | ||
3 | 2016 | 0.84 | 5.61 | 7.29 | 3.50 | 148 | ||
4 | 2020 | 0.84 | 6.64 | 8.03 | 3.45 | 2,007 | ||
5 | 2015 | 0.83 | 7.71 | 8.57 | 4.26 | 8,396 | ||
6 | 2020 | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients (Revised Edition) | 0.83 | 5.60 | 8.65 | 74 | ||
7 | 2014 | 0.83 | 6.82 | 8.03 | 3.39 | 2,311 | ||
8 | 2020 | 0.83 | 5.61 | 8.73 | 4.00 | 70 | ||
9 | 2017 | 0.83 | 5.74 | 7.91 | 3.67 | 264 | ||
10 | 2017 | 0.81 | 6.46 | 7.12 | 2.53 | 3,307 | ||
11 | 2017 | 0.78 | 6.15 | 7.73 | 3.17 | 863 | ||
12 | 2017 | 0.78 | 6.47 | 7.78 | 3.67 | 1,782 | ||
13 | 2015 | 0.78 | 6.37 | 7.40 | 2.47 | 1,864 | ||
14 | 2017 | 0.78 | 5.98 | 7.64 | 2.37 | 650 | ||
15 | 2019 | 0.78 | 5.87 | 7.93 | 3.44 | 357 | ||
16 | 2017 | 0.77 | 6.41 | 7.58 | 3.10 | 1,707 | ||
17 | 2016 | 0.77 | 7.77 | 8.01 | 2.66 | 30,050 | ||
18 | 2016 | 0.77 | 6.16 | 7.46 | 2.35 | 1,177 | ||
19 | 2017 | 0.77 | 7.37 | 7.80 | 3.29 | 10,511 | ||
20 | 2014 | 0.77 | 6.98 | 7.96 | 3.35 | 3,644 | ||
21 | 2020 | 0.77 | 5.64 | 7.62 | 2.91 | 151 | ||
22 | 2018 | 0.76 | 5.72 | 7.65 | 3.60 | 392 | ||
23 | 2019 | 0.76 | 6.20 | 8.78 | 2.96 | 829 | ||
24 | 2019 | 0.76 | 5.89 | 7.99 | 3.29 | 389 | ||
25 | 2019 | Dungeons & Dragons: Waterdeep – Dungeon of the Mad Mage Board Game | 0.76 | 5.97 | 7.77 | 2.42 | 625 |
Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.
2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games
What games are similar to Stars of Akarios while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Score | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 7.85 | 3.56 | 23 | ||
1 | 2015 | 6.40 | 0.83 | 7.71 | 8.57 | 4.26 | 8,396 | ||
2 | 2017 | 6.33 | 0.75 | 8.49 | 8.72 | 3.88 | 50,447 | ||
3 | 2016 | 6.00 | 0.77 | 7.77 | 8.01 | 2.66 | 30,050 | ||
4 | 2019 | 5.83 | 0.84 | 6.96 | 8.79 | 4.03 | 1,894 | ||
5 | 2017 | 5.66 | 0.77 | 7.37 | 7.80 | 3.29 | 10,511 | ||
6 | 2014 | 5.65 | 0.83 | 6.82 | 8.03 | 3.39 | 2,311 | ||
7 | 2017 | 5.55 | 0.71 | 7.81 | 8.42 | 3.85 | 8,578 | ||
8 | 2020 | 5.55 | 0.84 | 6.64 | 8.03 | 3.45 | 2,007 | ||
9 | 2017 | 5.49 | 0.71 | 7.69 | 8.00 | 2.90 | 19,623 | ||
10 | 2014 | 5.36 | 0.77 | 6.98 | 7.96 | 3.35 | 3,644 | ||
11 | 2019 | 5.35 | 0.71 | 7.59 | 8.22 | 3.30 | 9,031 | ||
12 | 2012 | 5.31 | 0.75 | 7.04 | 7.27 | 2.72 | 18,036 | ||
13 | 2019 | 5.25 | 0.70 | 7.54 | 7.99 | 2.60 | 12,327 | ||
14 | 2017 | 5.24 | 0.81 | 6.46 | 7.12 | 2.53 | 3,307 | ||
15 | 2018 | 5.14 | 0.74 | 6.96 | 7.73 | 2.86 | 4,023 | ||
16 | 2017 | 5.06 | 0.78 | 6.47 | 7.78 | 3.67 | 1,782 | ||
17 | 2015 | 5.02 | 0.69 | 7.29 | 7.66 | 2.50 | 14,207 | ||
18 | 2014 | 5.01 | 0.65 | 7.71 | 7.99 | 3.30 | 22,367 | ||
19 | 2015 | 4.97 | 0.78 | 6.37 | 7.40 | 2.47 | 1,864 | ||
20 | 2017 | 4.97 | 0.77 | 6.41 | 7.58 | 3.10 | 1,707 | ||
21 | 2011 | 4.96 | 0.74 | 6.73 | 7.23 | 2.58 | 5,958 | ||
22 | 2011 | 4.90 | 0.74 | 6.66 | 7.12 | 2.61 | 6,203 | ||
23 | 2020 | 4.90 | 0.86 | 5.70 | 8.02 | 4.15 | 193 | ||
24 | 2010 | 4.89 | 0.74 | 6.65 | 6.98 | 2.51 | 8,822 | ||
25 | 2004 | 4.87 | 0.71 | 6.84 | 7.05 | 2.39 | 40,994 |
2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?
I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.
2.3.1 Game Profiles
This plotscores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.
